SADC warns 41 million at risk, urges US$1.85bn for El Nino readiness

13 November 2026

Southern African Development Community (SADC) ministers, led by South Africa's Cooperative Governance and Traditional Affairs Minister Velenkosini Hlabisa, warned that a regional snapshot shows around 41 million people may be at risk during the 2026/27 rainfall season and urged member states to secure US$1.85bn for preparedness and response.

Hlabisa chaired the virtual 7th SADC Committee of Ministers Responsible for Disaster Risk Management and said only about US$241 million is currently available, leaving a financing gap that he warned cannot be met by "expressions of concern" alone. He called for costed contingency plans, assigned responsibilities, pre-arranged financing and measurable implementation so early warnings lead to real action (SAnews/CoGTA).

The meeting, held ahead of the 2026/27 season, was linked to a Disaster Preparedness and Response Planning Workshop convened by the SADC Secretariat with support from the European Commission (DG ECHO) and partners including the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), which said the workshop focuses on translating forecasts into anticipatory action.

SADC's seasonal outlook points to strong El Nino conditions, elevated temperatures and below-normal rainfall across much of central and southern SADC, increasing the risk of drought, heat stress and water shortages there, while northern, coastal and island areas may remain exposed to flooding and other high-rainfall hazards (SADC Secretariat).

That geographic split means different countries face different threats: central and southern countries are likely to need drought and water-security measures, while island and coastal states must plan for floods and cyclones. The meeting and partner reporting make Madagascar an immediate example of existing need: FEWS NET estimated 1.5-1.99 million people in Madagascar would require humanitarian food assistance during the peak lean season after repeated shocks, showing how weather and cyclone damage can prolong needs (FEWS NET).

Ministers pointed to concrete early actions and triggers already in regional guidance. The SADC Multi-Hazard Regional Anticipatory Action Framework 2026-2030 is intended to link forecasts and agreed triggers to pre-arranged interventions so that finance and action are released before impacts become severe. Examples named by ministers and partners include measures to protect agricultural planting, secure water access, safeguard livestock and household income, and keep essential services running before hazards fully materialise (SAnews/CoGTA; FAO).

Timing is critical: ministers urged that resources and pre-arranged financing be secured now, ahead of the 2026/27 rainfall and cyclone season, and called for contingency plans to be finalised, validated and tested so that triggers can quickly translate into action. They also stressed the need to pre-position essential relief supplies and to strengthen regional humanitarian logistics, including clearer procedures and interoperable systems to speed cross-border movement of assistance (SADC Secretariat).

The ministers highlighted food security risks across the region: SADC projects roughly 53 million people in reporting member states may face food insecurity during the 2026/27 consumption period, a situation driven by production shortfalls and by non-weather factors such as poverty, displacement, market access and rising food prices (SADC Secretariat).

As a practical illustration of the workshop and ministerial work, the FAO published material from the Regional Disaster Preparedness Workshop held in Johannesburg, which brought together SADC, DG ECHO, FAO and humanitarian partners to validate the regional contingency plan and discuss drought triggers and pre-arranged financing (FAO: Regional Disaster Preparedness Workshop).

Newzroom dot Africa has reached out to Southern African Development Community, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations and European Commission, DG ECHO for comment and is awaiting a response. This story will be updated when they respond.

Source: SAnews