Most African migrants never leave Africa, Wits city study finds
A survey of 1,644 people in Johannesburg, Nairobi and Accra found 80% of moves stay within the continent, and asked residents who they rely on: police, church leaders or neighbours.
The Atlas of Uncertainty is a collaborative project that combines survey data, creative cartography and arts practice to explore migration, trust and everyday life in nine gateway neighbourhoods across Johannesburg, Nairobi and Accra. It reveals how residents live, adapt and improvise in uncertain environments, offering a different perspective on poverty and decline in African urban spaces.
How the project was made: data, art and messy maps
The project involved over 60 contributors including cartographers, social scientists, artists and urban planners. It is presented as a book, an interactive website and a travelling exhibition. The data comes from a survey of 1,644 respondents from the nine neighbourhoods. Researchers gathered information on migration histories, social networks, civic engagement, and perceptions of authority figures such as police and religious leaders.
Data analyst Kabiri Bule worked with cartographers from Columbia's Center for Spatial Research to produce hundreds of maps reflecting complex migration routes and trust ecologies. The data was not straightforward; respondents often gave mixed answers and place names varied. Bule said, "I had to sit with complexity and be comfortable with it. You just have to report honestly what the data is telling you."
What the maps say about migration and trust
The maps show that about 80% of migration occurs within countries or stays within the African continent. Many African migrants do not move to Europe or the United States. The migration patterns are non-linear, with many stops along the way and some immobility due to various reasons.
Bule described the maps as resembling "spaghetti" to illustrate the complexity of migration journeys. The project also explores ecologies of trust, viewing trust as a governance signal that reveals how residents experience different authorities amid issues like safety, crime and discrimination.
Why this matters for African cities and policy
The Atlas offers a methodology of counter-cartography that incorporates multiple perspectives. Co-creator Caroline Kihato said the project opens up new ways to see urban spaces, acknowledging uncertainty and the need for humility in policy interventions. It emphasises understanding the lived realities of residents to create more inclusive cities.
Where to see the work and what comes next
The Atlas of Uncertainty is available as a book due in January 2027 from Wits University Press and Actar. It is also accessible through an interactive website and a travelling exhibition. The project builds on data from the Wits-Oxford Mobility Lab and represents interdisciplinary collaboration across social science, art and urban planning.
Sources
- Wits University: Spaghetti, hieroglyphics and what's bubbling under Africa's urban map 02/11/2026 The Atlas of Uncertainty illuminates 'ecologies of trust' as well as previously untold complexities about migration.
- wits.ac.za (research)
Source: Wits University
